WTXS31 PGTW 231500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231200Z --- NEAR 15.1S 97.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 97.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 15.9S 97.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 16.7S 97.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 17.4S 96.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 18.2S 96.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 18.7S 95.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 18.7S 92.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 17.5S 88.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 231500Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 97.6E. 23JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1031 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A WELL-DEFINED LLCC IN A 231009Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS) BASED ON HIGHER ADT AND SATCON ESTIMATES (44-45 KTS). ADDITIONALLY, PARTIAL SCATTEROMETRY DATA REVEALS A SWATH OF 25-30KT WINDS NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC WITH A FEW EMBEDDED 30-35KT WIND BARBS. THE HIGH VWS IS OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, FAIR WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). IN THE NEAR TERM, TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST. PERSISTENT VWS SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24. AFTERWARDS, VWS SHOULD DECREASE AND ENABLE TC 13S TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 45 KTS BY TAU 72. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO A WESTWARD TRACK AS A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH TAKES OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. ALONG THIS TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN DUE TO COOLING SST VALUES (26-27 CELSIUS). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS WITH THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE TRACKS JOINING THE GENERAL SOUTHWARD PATH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF ALONG TRACK SPREAD BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN AND THUS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z AND 241500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) FINAL WARNING (WTXS32 PGTW).// NNNN