WTXS32 PGTW 230900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 013 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 20.4S 34.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 34.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 21.3S 32.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 22.0S 30.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 33.6E. 23JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (ELOISE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 363 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM HAD AN EYE AS IT MADE LANDFALL SOUTH OF BEIRA; HOWEVER, THE EYE DETERIORATED AS THE CIRCULATION TRACKED INLAND. BASED ON THIS IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATION OF A DISCRETE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN A 230353Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KTS IS BASED ON AN UNOFFICIAL PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (77 KTS), WARMING CLOUD TOPS, AND WEAKENING STRUCTURE IN MSI. TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IT MOVES ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTHEAST. DESPITE ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, INTERACTION WITH THE UNDERLYING TERRAIN AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES INLAND WITH FULL DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A MAXIMUM SPREAD OF 32 NM. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) FINAL WARNING (WTXS33 PGTW).// NNNN