WTXS31 PGTW 230300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 005 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 13.8S 97.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 97.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 14.6S 97.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 15.4S 97.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 16.2S 96.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 17.0S 96.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 17.9S 96.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 18.0S 94.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 17.2S 91.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 320 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 230300Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 97.2E. 23JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1089 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STRUGGLING SYSTEM DUE TO STRONG (25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 230027Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SPIRAL RAIN BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A 230110Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 2.6 (37 KNOTS), PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 2.0 (30 KNOTS), AND A SATCON OF 39 KNOTS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE COCOS ISLANDS, 120NM NORTH OF THE CURRENT CENTER, INDICATE 10-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 22 KNOTS. THE STRONG VWS IS OFFSET BY FAIR WESTERLY OUTFLOW AND WARM SST VALUES (28-29C). TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 48. BETWEEN TAUS 48 AND 72, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN GRADUALLY WESTWARD AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL TRACK, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE WHICH INITIALLY DRIVE THE SYSTEM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BEFORE MAKING THE WESTWARD TURN AT TAU 72. ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT ALONG TRACK DIFFERENCES AMONG ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 13S SHOULD SLOWLY INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 36 AS VWS DECREASES WITH A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 72. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED TAUS AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS SLIGHTLY COOLER SST (26-27C). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z AND 240300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) FINAL WARNING (WTXS33 PGTW). // NNNN