WTXS32 PGTW 222100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 012 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z --- NEAR 19.5S 35.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 35.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 20.3S 34.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 21.1S 32.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 21.9S 30.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 22.4S 29.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 222100Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 35.4E. 22JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE SYSTEM WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 221639Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON PGTW/FMEE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5(77 KNOTS) AND AN ADT OF T4.2(70 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES OF 29C REMAIN FAVORABLE. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS THE SYSTEM'S SUSTAINED INTERACTION WITH LAND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. TC 12S WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 30NM THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH MODERATE UNCERTAINTY OVER LAND AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY WEAKENS. THUS THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, ESPECIALLY THE TRACK JUST SOUTH OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. TC 12S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO 55 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AS IT MOVES INLAND INTO MOZAMBIQUE. THE SYSTEM IS LARGE WITH EXTENSIVE DEEP MOISTURE AND SHOULD BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AS IT TRACKS INLAND AFTER TAU 06. TC 12S IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z AND 232100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) FINAL WARNING (WTXS33 PGTW). // NNNN