WTXS31 PGTW 221500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 004 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 221200Z --- NEAR 13.3S 97.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 97.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 13.8S 97.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 14.4S 97.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 15.5S 97.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 16.3S 97.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 17.1S 96.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 17.6S 95.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 17.6S 93.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 221500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 97.3E. 22JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1100 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STRUGGLING SYSTEM DUE TO STRONG (30- 40 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 221022Z SSMIS 91GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A 221140Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND RECENT ASCAT DATA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE COCOS ISLANDS, 70NM NNW OF THE CURRENT CENTER, INDICATE 10-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25- 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 41 KNOTS. THE STRONG VWS IS OFFSET BY FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST VALUES (28-29C). TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN GRADUALLY WESTWARD AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 100NM AT TAU 120. TC 13S SHOULD SLOWLY INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 36 AS VWS DECREASES WITH A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 72. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED TAUS AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SST (26-27C). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z AND 231500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) FINAL WARNING (WTXS33 PGTW).// NNNN