WTXS32 PGTW 220900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 011 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 18.8S 38.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 38.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 19.6S 35.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 20.3S 34.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 21.1S 32.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 21.7S 30.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 22.6S 27.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 220900Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 37.5E. 22JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (ELOISE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 239NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 220405Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE ALSO SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON PGTW/FMEE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0(65 KNOTS). HOWEVER, A 220251Z SENTINEL-1B PASS INDICATES HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER WINDS ELSEWHERE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES OF 30C REMAIN FAVORABLE. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR IS THE SYSTEM'S INTERACTION WITH LAND OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. TC 12S WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 15NM THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH MODERATE UNCERTAINTY OVER LAND AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY WEAKENS. THUS THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, ESPECIALLY THE TRACK JUST SOUTH OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. THIS FORECAST IS ALSO HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST. TC 12S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 75 KNOTS AT TAU 12 BUT COULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT LANDFALL NEAR TAU 18. REGARDLESS OF PEAK WINDS, THE SYSTEM IS LARGE WITH EXTENSIVE DEEP MOISTURE AND SHOULD BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AS IT TRACKS INLAND AFTER TAU 18. TC 12S IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z AND 230900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) FINAL WARNING (WTXS33 PGTW).// NNNN