WTXS31 PGTW 220300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 003 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 220000Z --- NEAR 13.3S 97.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 97.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 13.6S 97.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 14.2S 97.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 14.8S 97.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 15.5S 97.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 16.7S 97.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 17.4S 96.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 17.8S 95.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 220300Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 97.5E. 22JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST BY STRONG EASTERLY VWS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS SET WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND APRF RANGE BETWEEN T2.0-T2.5 (30-35 KTS), WHILE THE CURRENT ADT ESTIMATE IS T2.4, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. TC 13S IS ENSCONCED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH (25-30 KTS) VWS OFFSETTING MODERATE WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29C) SSTS. TC 13S IS SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN A VERY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD IN THE WEAK STEERING FLOW. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM RESULTING A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOUTHWARD TRANSLATION THROUGH TAU 48. AT THIS POINT, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH, WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL TRANSITORY RIDGE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE TROUGH, WHICH WILL PUSH TC 13S ONTO A MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK AFTER TAU 72. DUE TO THE HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS LITTLE PROSPECT OF NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36. DECREASING VWS AND INCREASING OUTFLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS FOR A SHORT TIME NEAR TAU 96, BEFORE INCREASING VWS AND COOLER WATERS ONCE MORE TAKE THEIR TOLL AND WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH A WIDE SPREAD IN POTENTIAL FORECAST SOLUTIONS. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE REMAIN OUTLIERS, WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NAVGEM AND HWRF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A NEARLY STRAIGHT POLEWARD TRACK INTO THE RIDGE, WHICH IS UNLIKELY. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS DEPICT A SOUTH, THEN SOUTWEST TO WEST TRACK SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED AND TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE TURN TO THE WEST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES JUST WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND NEAR THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z AND 230300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // NNNN