WTXS33 PGTW 220300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 002 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 220000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 120.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 120.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 20.6S 120.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 21.5S 121.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 22.6S 123.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 220300Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 120.7E. 22JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 118 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS PEAKED AND IS ON A WEAKENING TREND, WITH DEEP CYCLING CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTH, AND PARTIALLY OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED RADAR DATA FROM THE BROOME AND PORT HEDLAND RADARS INDICATED A VERY WEAK ROTATION CROSSING THE SHORE NEAR SANDFIRE, AUSTRALIA, BUT THE SIGNATURE IS NOT CONCLUSIVE AND THUS LENDS ONLY LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, HEDGED UPWARDS FROM A PGTW T2.5 (35 KT) DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IN LINE WITH AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T2.8. TC 14S IS IN THE PROCESS OF MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA AT THE 220000Z HOUR, AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING INLAND ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY, BUT SLOWLY, WEAKEN OVER THE GREAT SANDY DESERT AND DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36, THOUGH REMANANTS OF THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING INLAND INTO WEST-CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO, BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION, AND THE RESULTING POSSIBILITY OF A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME OVER WATER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN