WTXS32 PGTW 212100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 010 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 17.8S 40.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 40.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 18.6S 38.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 19.4S 36.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 20.3S 34.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 20.9S 32.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 22.3S 29.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 22.9S 27.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 212100Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 40.1E. 21JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM NORTH OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CORE CIRCULATION REMAINS VERY BROAD WITH THE PRIMARY DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 60NM FROM THE CENTER. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION IS FLARING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CENTER AND APPEARS TO BE WRAPPING IN TOWARDS THE EXPOSED CENTER, INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE BEGINNING A CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION TREND. A 211829Z ASCAT-A SCATTEROMETER PASS CONFIRMED THE BROAD NATURE OF THE CENTER AND LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE SAME ASCAT-A PASS SHOWED A SWATH OF 45 KNOT WINDS, WITH A FEW EMBEDDED 50 KNOT WIND BARBS TO THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH SUPPORTS THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS), LEDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY. TC 12S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWEST THROUGH DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR JUST PRIOR TO TAU 36 NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ALONG THE TRACK ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE TO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW (5-10 KT) VWS, ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM (31 DEG C) SSTS. RECENT UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE IMPINGING ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH HAS SERVED TO INHIBIT MORE RAPID STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THIS CONVERGENCE IS WEAKENING. ONCE THIS CONVERGENT FLOW IS REDUCED, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY, REACHING A PEAK OF 75 KNOTS JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY DUE TO THE LIMITED TIME REMAINING OVER WATER, THE TIMING OF THE DECREASE OF THE CONVERGENT FLOW TO THE SOUTH, AND THE DISRUPTION OF THE INFLOW FROM THE NORTH DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND AFTER TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH VERY LOW SPREAD (<60NM) THROUGH TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z AND 222100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN