ABIO10 PGTW 211800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/211800Z-221800ZJAN2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210752ZJAN2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210151ZJAN2021//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211451ZJAN2021//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. REF C IS A
/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92S).//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 21JAN21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 16.6S 42.7E, APPROXIMATELY 365 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF 
EUROPA ISLAND, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED 
AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 210900) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 21JAN21 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 97.2E, APPROXIMATELY 30 NM SOUTHEAST OF COCOS 
ISLAND, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 210300 COR) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 13.7S 121.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 119.5E, APPROXIMATELY 
162 NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 210852Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION 
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR, ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (31C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92S 
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION 
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF C (WTXS22 PGTW 211500) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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