WTXS31 PGTW 211500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 211200Z --- NEAR 12.8S 97.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 97.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 13.0S 97.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 13.4S 97.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 14.0S 97.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 14.9S 97.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 16.1S 97.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 16.6S 96.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 16.8S 95.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 211500Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 97.3E. 21JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1116 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STRUGGLING SYSTEM DUE TO STRONG (30- 40 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 211149Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH AN ISOLATED BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 2.5(35 KNOTS). SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE COCOS ISLANDS, 47NM NNW OF THE CURRENT CENTER, INDICATE 10-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 34-37 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 47 KNOTS. THE STRONG VWS IS OFFSET BY FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST VALUES (28-29C). TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN GRADUALLY WESTWARD AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS. GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE REMAIN OUTLIERS WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD TRACK. NAVGEM INDICATES AN UNLIKELY SOUTHWARD, FASTER TRACK INTO THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SOUTHWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK WITH MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE WESTWARD TURN. THUS, HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 13S SHOULD SLOWLY INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 36 AS VWS DECREASES WITH A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 72. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED TAUS AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z AND 221500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN