WTXS22 PGTW 211500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92S) REISSUED// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201451ZJAN21// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 201500)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.6S 119.3E TO 20.0S 120.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 211200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 119.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.7S 121.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 119.5E, APPROXIMATELY 162 NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 210852Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 221500Z.// NNNN