WTXS32 PGTW 210900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 210600Z --- NEAR 16.6S 42.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 42.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 17.5S 40.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 18.4S 38.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 19.3S 36.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 20.3S 33.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 21.6S 31.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 22.8S 28.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 210900Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 42.1E. 21JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (ELOISE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 210706Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT FRAGMENTED SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD BUT DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. A 210553Z ASCAT-A IMAGE REVEALS A 40NM DIAMETER CORE OF WEAK WINDS WITH 35-40 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT AND 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE OVERALL WIND STRUCTURE AND A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS), HOWEVER, THE 210600Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND A FMEE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) ARE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST VALUES (30C). UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS LIKELY HINDERING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. TC 12S WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM AT TAU 24, THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 20NM THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY OVER LAND AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY WEAKENS. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SHORTLY WITH DECREASING VWS AND IMPROVED POLEWARD VENTING AS THE RIDGING TO THE SOUTH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. THEREFORE, TC 12S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36 TO A PEAK OF 75 KNOTS. DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC AND THE TRACK ALONG THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE PRIOR TO LANDFALL NEAR BEIRA, THERE IS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY, WHICH COULD BE LOWER. REGARDLESS OF PEAK WINDS, THE SYSTEM IS LARGE WITH EXTENSIVE DEEP MOISTURE AND SHOULD BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AS IT TRACKS INLAND AFTER TAU 48. TC 12S IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z AND 220900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN