WTXS31 PGTW 210300 COR MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 210000Z --- NEAR 12.4S 97.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 97.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 12.5S 96.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 12.9S 95.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 13.4S 95.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 14.1S 95.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 14.8S 95.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 16.0S 94.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 16.9S 93.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 210300Z POSITION NEAR 12.4S 97.0E. 21JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP, FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON ASSESSMENT OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KTS) PGTW AND T2.5 (35 KTS) FROM APRF WITH SUPPORT FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM COCOS ISLAND INDICATING WESTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 35 KNOT WINDS, WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS AT 0100Z. ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM LIES IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KT) VWS, WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 DEG C) SSTS. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING RELATIVELY QUICKLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR- EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) EXTENSION TO THE NORTH, BUT HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE STEERING PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA TO SOUTHERN JAVA WILL DEVELOP, AND SERVE TO PUSH TC 13S ONTO A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 96. THEREAFTER AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, IT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING MORE TOWARDS THE WEST AS IT COMES UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A TRANSITORY MID- LATITUDE HIGH TO THE SOUTH. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY HIGH VWS, THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, ONCE IT BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH, THE OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT WILL IMPROVE AS IT BRIEFLY TAPS INTO DIVERGENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 50 KNOTS BY TAU 96. THEREAFTER, INCREASING VWS WILL SERVE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WTIH TWO DISTINCT POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE BRING THE SYSTEM INTO MUCH MORE INTERACTION WITH A DEEPER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND HENCE TURN THE SYSTEM EASTWARD AFTER TAU 24. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS INDICATE A MORE POLEWARD TRACK, ULTIMATELY TURNING WESTWARD AFTER TAU 72, WHILE THE NAVGEM TRACK IS NEARLY STRAIGHT POLEWARD. AT THIS TIME, THE GFS SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED UNLIKELY AND THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOSE TO, BUT FASTER THAN, THE ECWMF TRACKER WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z AND 220300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. 2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED MANOP HEADER.// NNNN