ABIO10 PGTW 210330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/210330Z-211800ZJAN2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201951ZJAN2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210152ZJAN2021//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201451ZJAN2021//
NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. REF C IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT./
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.     
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 20JAN21 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 44.8E, APPROXIMATELY 247 NM NORTHWEST OF 
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE 
ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 
202100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 21JAN21 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 97.2E, APPROXIMATELY 30 NM SOUTHEAST OF COCOS 
ISLAND, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS32 PGTW 210300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 13.4S 104.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7S 121.4E, APPROXIMATELY 
265 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 200222Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP 
CONVECTION, PARTICULARLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. A PARTIAL 200607Z 
ASCAT-A PASS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20-25KT WIND 
BARBS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 15-20KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN 
SEMI-CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S WILL TRACK GENERALLY 
WESTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES AND STRENGTHENS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 13.1S 99.3E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. 
SEE PARA 2.A.(2) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.      
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO 
WARNING STATUS.//
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