WTXS32 PGTW 200900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 15.6S 48.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 48.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 16.4S 45.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 17.4S 43.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 18.3S 41.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 19.2S 39.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 21.4S 36.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 23.7S 33.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 24.5S 30.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 200900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 47.4E. 20JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (ELOISE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS THAT TC 12S HAS STEADILY WEAKENED AS IT MOVED INLAND. THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS ERODED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH SOME FLARING DEEPER CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING LOW-CLOUD TRACING IN THE ANIMATED MSI ALONG WITH ANALYSIS OF THE BROAD BANDING EVIDENT IN A 200546Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS BASED ON A WEAKENING TREND IN UNOFFICIAL PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AS THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND THE FRICTIONAL TERRAIN EFFECTS REFLECTED IN THE WEAKENING STRUCTURE. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 12S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER MADAGASCAR PRIOR TO EMERGING OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL PRIOR TO TAU 24. WITHIN THE CHANNEL, THE WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW VWS VALUES WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO STEADILY RE-INTENSIFY TO 80 KTS BY TAU 72. AFTERWARDS, TC 12S WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE AND LAND INTERACTION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THEREAFTER AS IT TRACKS INLAND. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, PLACING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z AND 210900Z.// NNNN