WTXS32 PGTW 202100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 201800Z --- NEAR 15.7S 44.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 44.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 16.6S 42.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 17.4S 40.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 18.3S 38.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 19.2S 36.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 21.1S 32.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 22.7S 29.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 202100Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 44.3E. 20JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (ELOISE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 247 NM NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT, DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS REEMERGED OVER WATER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE WINDFIELD DEPICTED IN TIMELY 201819Z ASCAT-B DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 35 KTS WINDS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT-B DATA AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS). TC ELOISE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 48 AND RESULT IN A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KTS BY THIS TIME. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE STEERING STR AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72, WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION LIKELY TO OCCUR PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND INTERACTION WITH THE UNDERLYING TERRAIN AND COMPLETE DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 173 NM SPREAD IN ACROSS TRACK SOLUTIONS AT LANDFALL. THIS SPREAD DECREASES TO 125 NM WHEN THE FAR LEFT OF TRACK NAVGEM SOLUTION IS NEGLECTED. THIS TIGHT AGREEMENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z AND 212100Z.// NNNN