ABIO10 PGTW 201530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/201530Z-201800ZJAN2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200751ZJAN2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201452ZJAN2021//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201451ZJAN2021//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B AND C ARE TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 20JAN21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 48.0E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTH OF 
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS (KTS) 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE 
ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 
200900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 13.4S 104.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7S 121.4E, APPROXIMATELY 
265 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 200222Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP 
CONVECTION, PARTICULARLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. A PARTIAL 200607Z 
ASCAT-A PASS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20-25KT WIND 
BARBS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 15-20KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN 
SEMI-CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31C)SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S WILL TRACK GENERALLY 
WESTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES AND STRENGTHENS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS22 PGTW 201500) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 13.4S 104.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 99.3E, APPROXIMATELY 153 
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION OVER A 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ADDITIONALLY, 
201202Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND 
WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 
93S WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES AND 
STRENGTHENS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF C 
(WTXS21 PGTW 201500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
      3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREAS IN 2.B.(1) AND 
2.B.(2) TO HIGH.//
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