WTXS22 PGTW 201500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92S)// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201451ZJAN2021// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 201500)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3S 122.7E TO 16.8S 119.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 201200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.7S 121.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 122.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7S 121.4E, APPROXIMATELY 265NM NNW OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 201200Z DIRECT ASCAT-A IMAGE DEPICTS 25-30KT WINDS WRAPPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC WHILE DEEPER CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH HAS HIGHER WINDS (35-40KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ESTABLISHED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (31-32C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES AND STRENGTHENS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 211500Z. 4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 99.3E.// NNNN