ABIO10 PGTW 200730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/200730Z-201800ZJAN2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191953ZJAN2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 19JAN21 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 50.1E, APPROXIMATELY 262 NM NORTHEAST OF 
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED 
AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 192100) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 13.4S 104.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 122.7E, APPROXIMATELY 
490 NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 200455Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A CONSOLIDATING 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. 
A 200611Z PARTIAL ASCAT-B PASS DEPICTS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20-
25KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 15-20KT WINDS TO THE 
NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT 
CONSOLIDATES AND STRENGTHENS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 13.4S 104.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 100.9E, APPROXIMATELY 
235 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 200222Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION, PARTICULARLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. A 
PARTIAL 200607Z ASCAT-A PASS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 
20-25KT WIND BARBS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 15-20KT WINDS IN 
THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31C)SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S WILL TRACK GENERALLY 
WESTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES AND STRENGTHENS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREAS IN 2.B.(1) AND 2.B.(2) 
TO MEDIUM.//
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