WTXS32 PGTW 192100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 15.3S 50.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 50.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 15.8S 48.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 16.7S 46.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 17.7S 44.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 18.6S 42.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 20.6S 38.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 23.1S 35.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 24.9S 33.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 192100Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 49.6E. 19JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY ERODED AFTER IT MADE LANDFALL OVER NORTHEASTERN MADAGASCAR NEAR ANTALAHA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING LOW-CLOUD TRACING IN THE EIR LOOP AND TRIANGULATION FROM COASTAL WIND OBSERVATIONS, INCLUDING ANTALAHA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45KTS IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES PRIOR TO LANDFALL AND DEDUCED FROM INLAND SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS. THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, DRAG ACROSS THE ISLAND, THEN EXIT INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AROUND TAU 36, AND BY TAU 96 WILL MAKE LANDFALL INTO SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE NORTH OF MAXIXE. THE RUGGED MADAGASCAR TERRAIN WILL WEAKEN THE CYCLONE TO 30KTS BY TAU 24; HOWEVER, AFTER IT EXITS INTO THE WARM MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, IT WILL GRADUALLY RE-INTENSIFY TO 80KTS BEFORE LANDFALL. BY TAU 120, LAND INTERACTION WILL REDUCE IT TO 60KTS. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. AT TAU 120, A STRAND OF MODELS INCLUDING AFUM, UEMN, AND AVNO DEFLECT THE VORTEX SOUTHEASTWARD BACK INTO THE CHANNEL, AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO. THE JTWC TRACK IS A BIT FURTHER INLAND AT THE TERMINATION POINT TO OFFSET THIS UNLIKELY DEFLECTION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z AND 202100Z.// NNNN