ABIO10 PGTW 191800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/191800Z-201800ZJAN2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190753ZJAN2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF 
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 19JAN21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 51.7E, APPROXIMATELY 358NM NORTHEAST OF 
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS 
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE 
ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 
190900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: 
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
11.8S 124.7E, APPROXIMATELY 361 NM NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING 
SYSTEM WITH FRAGMENTED BUT DEEP CONVECTION. A 181337Z ASCAT 
BULLSEYE PASS DEPICTS A WEAK AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92S WILL TRACK 
SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES AND STRENGTHENS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
13.4S 104.5E, APPROXIMATELY 437 NM EAST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 191715Z GMI 
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FORMATIVE LOW LEVEL BANDING WITH 
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT INVEST 93S WILL TRACK WESTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES AND 
STRENGTHENS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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