WTXS32 PGTW 190900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z --- NEAR 14.5S 51.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 51.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 14.9S 50.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 15.4S 48.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 16.2S 46.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 17.3S 44.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 19.2S 40.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 21.4S 37.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 23.6S 34.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 190900Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 51.3E. 19JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (ELOISE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 358NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS. BASED ON THE MSI AND A 190608Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0-3.5 (45- 55 KTS) AND A 190608Z METOP-B PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE WITH A SWATH OF 45- 50 KT WINDS SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN OVERALL MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 12S IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. IN THE NEAR TERM, TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MADAGASCAR BY TAU 12 THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 30 KTS AS IT TRANSITS ACROSS THE RUGGED ISLAND TERRAIN BEFORE EXITING OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL NEAR TAU 54. THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WILL ENABLE TC 12S TO STEADILY RE-INTENSIFY TO 70 KTS PRIOR TO MAKING FINAL LANDFALL NEAR MAXIXE IN SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. OF NOTE, THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE TRACKERS MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM ALONG A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERN TRACK THAN THE OTHER CONSENSUS MODELS. THE 19/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTION SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA) FINAL WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW).// NNNN