WTXS32 PGTW 182100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 181800Z --- NEAR 14.1S 53.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 20 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 53.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 14.9S 51.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 15.2S 49.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 15.5S 48.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 16.1S 46.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 18.2S 42.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 20.0S 38.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 22.0S 35.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 182100Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 52.6E. 18JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 428 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY WARMED UP; HOWEVER, RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO TIGHTLY WRAP INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT IS PARTLY OBSCURED BY THE CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50KTS IS AVERAGED FROM AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45KTS (PGTW) AND T3.5/55KTS (FMEE). ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (29-30C) OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 12S IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST, MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHEASTERN MADAGASCAR BY TAU 18, DRAG ACROSS THE ISLAND, THEN EXIT INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AROUND TAU 66 AND BY TAU 120 WILL BE POISED TO MAKE A FINAL LANDFALL INTO SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE NORTH OF MAXIXE. THE RUGGED MADAGASCAR TERRAIN WILL WEAKEN THE CYCLONE TO 30KTS BY TAU 48; HOWEVER, AFTER IT EXITS INTO THE WARM MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, IT WILL GRADUALLY RE-INTENSIFY TO 60KTS BEFORE FINAL LANDFALL. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z AND 192100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN