WTPS31 PGTW 181500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 181200Z --- NEAR 17.8S 147.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 147.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 17.3S 147.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 16.7S 146.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 181500Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 147.5E. 18JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (KIMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 111 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE TOWNSVILLE RADAR DEPICT DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. AN 181059Z ASCAT-A BULLSEYE IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED CIRCULATION, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND 35-40 KNOT GRADIENT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS IMAGE SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 35 KNOTS AND ALSO SUPPORTS THE ABRUPT EQUATORWARD TRACK CHANGE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS LOW AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST, THE SYSTEM IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HAS DE-COUPLED. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT (SO CALLED SQUASHED SPIDER) BUT REFLECTS A GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EQUATORWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH STEADY WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION ANTICIPATED BY TAU 24. DUE TO THE COMPLEX, EVOLVING STEERING INFLUENCES AND POOR MODEL AGREEMENT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.// NNNN