WTPS31 PGTW 180900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 180600Z --- NEAR 17.8S 147.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 147.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 18.0S 147.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 18.1S 147.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 17.9S 147.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 17.5S 147.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 16.9S 146.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 180900Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 147.1E. 18JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (KIMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 92 NM SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE TOWNSVILLE RADAR, FORTUNATELY, REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SMALL, WELL-DEFINED LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON A KNES DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS), HEDGED ABOVE A 180600Z ADT CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 3.2 (ABOUT 50 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM SST VALUES (28-29C). TC 11P IS LOCATED WITHIN A COMPLEX, COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH THE PRIMARY STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST AND A WEAKER STR TO THE WEST. THUS THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING AN EASTWARD TURN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT (SO CALLED SQUASHED SPIDER) BUT REFLECTS A GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME QUASI- STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WITH AN EQUATORWARD TRACK CHANGE BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW (WITH COOLER, MORE STABLE AIR) IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND STEER IT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH DISSIPATION ANTICIPATED BY TAU 72. DUE TO THE COMPLEX, EVOLVING STEERING INFLUENCES AND POOR MODEL AGREEMENT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.// NNNN