WTXS32 PGTW 180900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 180600Z --- NEAR 13.7S 56.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 56.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 14.5S 54.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 15.1S 52.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 15.5S 51.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 15.8S 49.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 17.0S 45.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 18.9S 41.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 20.7S 37.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 180900Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 56.0E. 18JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (ELOISE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 386 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED UNDER THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. AN 180321Z MHS 89GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD LLCC WITH A CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND DISPLACED OVER THE WEST AND NORTHWEST QUADRANTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST VALUES (29-30C). TC 12S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AFUM, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 130-170NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS FROM TAU 96 TO TAU 120. CONSEQUENTLY, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS HIGH. TC 12S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 36 AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 48, AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR BY TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, TC 12S IS FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY AS IT EMERGES OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z AND 190900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN