WTPS31 PGTW 180300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 180000Z --- NEAR 17.1S 146.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 146.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 18.0S 146.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 18.7S 146.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 19.2S 146.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 19.6S 146.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 19.9S 144.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 180300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 146.7E. 18JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 53 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION, WITH HOT TOWERS AND OVERSHOOTING TOPS EVIDENT JUST WEST OF THE ASSESSED LLCC. CAIRNS RADAR DATA SHOWS A VERY CLEAR EYE-LIKE FEATURE, WITH STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A SYMMETRICAL AND WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION, AND LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AS INDICATED BY RADAR SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY HEDGED TO 55 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS) FROM PGTW AND ABRF WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT PROVIDED BY AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.5 AND SATCON ESTIMATE OF 57 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN ELONGATED ANTI-CYCLONE OR RIDGE OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM PROVIDING BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WITH THE PREDOMINATE CHANNEL BEING POLEWARD INTO THE DIFFLUENT WESTERLIES. THE SAME RIDGE IS PROVIDING FOR LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS, AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH WARM (29-30C) SSTS, IS SUPPORTING THE GENERAL INTENSIFICATION TREND. THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR LOCATED FAR TO THE EAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DISPLAYS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY, WITH A SPLIT DECISION ON AN EASTWARD OR WESTWARD TRACK. THE HWRF, ECMWF AND GALWEM ULTIMATELY TURN THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST OVER AUSTRALIA, WHILE THE NAVGEM, COAMPS-TC AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MOVE THE SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS TRACKERS BRING THE SYSTEM TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION BY TAU 36 AND THEN TURN BACK NORTH. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARDS ONCE MORE BUT REMAINS IN CONCURRENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN TURNING THE SYSTEM INLAND OVER AUSTRALIA AFTER TAU 36 AS IT WEAKENS AND COMES UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SYNOPTIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW. IN LIGHT OF THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND FLUIDITY IN THE RUN TO RUN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 11P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENISFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, PEAKING AT 60 KNOTS. HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH AWAY FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS, IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, TERRAIN INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.// NNNN