WTXS32 PGTW 172100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 13.2S 59.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 59.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 13.5S 57.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 14.3S 54.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 15.0S 53.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 15.6S 51.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 16.0S 48.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 17.7S 43.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 20.0S 40.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 172100Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 59.0E. 17JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SYMMETRIC MASS OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION WHICH IS SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 171740Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED SHALLOW BUT DEFINED SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING THE LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND FMEE, IN LIGHT OF AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.1 AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 48 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR CENTERED TO THE SOUTH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAK LANDFALL JUST AFTER TAU 48 ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. SOME SLIGHT MODIFCATIONS IN THE TRACK CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES MADAGASCAR BUT THE OVERALL STEERING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STEADY FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. AS INDICATED BY THE SHARP UPSTREAM EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT, PROVIDING FOR MODERATE (15-25 KTS) VWS AND LIMITED OUTFLOW. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE WARM (28-29C) BUT THE COMBINATION OF LIMITED DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW AND MODERATE VWS WILL RESULT IN SLOW INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE IT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE BAND OF STRONG EASTERLIES CURRENTLY INHIBITING STRENGTHENING, ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A POINT SOURCE OR ANTICYCLONE OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM AROUND TAU 48. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BURST OF INTENSIFICATION JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL, WITH A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS EXPECTED AT TAU 48. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF DEVELOPMENT OF THIS POINT SOURCE ALOFT, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL. TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR BY TAU 96 BUT THEN RAPIDLY RE-INTENSIFY AFTER IT REEMERGES INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AROUND TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 80NM SPREAD AT TAU 48, INCREASING TO 140NM AT TAU 120, LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z AND 182100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN