WTPS31 PGTW 172100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 16.3S 146.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 146.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 16.9S 146.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 17.5S 146.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 18.2S 146.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 19.0S 146.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 19.5S 145.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 19.6S 143.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 172100Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 146.6E. 17JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 58 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION MAINTAINING ITS OVERALL AREAL EXTENT BUT BECOMING INCREASINGLY FRAGMENTED AND ELONGATED ALONG A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST AXIS. HOWEVER, ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE CAIRNS RADAR SHOWS LOW-LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDS, PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT, WRAPPING INTO THE ELONGATED AND WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION BETWEEN ARLINGTON AND BOUGAINVILLE REEFS, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS, HEDGED UPWARDS FROM THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 3.0, BASED ON A T3.6 CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE AND A 55KT SATCON ESTIMATE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS BY JTWC INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK POINT SOURCE OVER OR NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM, WITH ADDITIONAL POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO STRONG WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH. COMBINED WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS AND WARM (29-30 DEG C) SSTS, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR- TERM. TC 11P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, ENSCONCED BETWEEN A STRONG STR TO THE EAST AND UPPER- LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN POOR AGREEMENT, WITH ALL OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS SHIFTING SIGNIFICANTLY EAST SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUN. THE MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS NOW CONCUR WITH A SOUTHWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36, THEN A TURN EASTWARD, KEEPING THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE THOUGH TAU 120. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE SINGLE CONTRARIAN, WHILE REMAINING OFFSHORE, TURNS THE TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE COASTLINE AFTER TAU 36. THE JTWC FORECAST SHIFTS THE TRACK SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTHWARD AS THE SYTSEM TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP STR TO THE EAST, THEN TURNS WEST AFTER TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND COMES UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST. DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND FLUIDITY IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 11P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH TAU 12 BUT THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES AND OUTFLOW DECREASES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, WITH RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 16 FEET. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.// NNNN