WTPS31 PGTW 171500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 171200Z --- NEAR 15.8S 146.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 146.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 16.5S 146.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 17.1S 145.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 17.5S 145.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 17.7S 144.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 171500Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 146.4E. 17JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (KIMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 77 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION EXPANDING IN AREAL EXTENT, OBSCURING THE COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE CAIRNS RADAR SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF BOUGAINVILLE REEF, WHICH IS REPORTING 25-30 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS (10-MINUTE AVERAGE) WITH 30-35 KNOT GUSTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS, HEDGED ABOVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES, BASED ON A 171200Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 3.3 (50 KNOTS). UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST VALUES (29-30C). TC 11P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 12 WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWESTWARD THEN WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AND TWO DISCRETE GROUPS OF TRACKERS. UEMN AND NVGM INDICATE A SOUTHWARD TO EASTWARD TRACK THAT HOLDS THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WHILE AVNO, EEMN, ECMF AND AEMN TRACK THE SYSTEM OVER LAND. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK BASED ON THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC MOTION IN THE EARLY TAUS. TC 11P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 24 WITH RAPID WEAKENING OVER LAND AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.// NNNN