WTXS32 PGTW 170900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/162151JAN2021// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 170600Z --- NEAR 12.6S 62.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 62.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 13.1S 59.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 13.7S 57.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 14.3S 55.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 15.0S 52.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 15.5S 50.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 16.6S 46.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 18.7S 41.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 170900Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 61.5E. 17JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (ELOISE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 528 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE CLUSTER OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 170507Z MHS 89GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD BUT DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND FMEE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST VALUES (28- 29C). TC 12S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 100-150NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS FROM TAU 96 TO TAU 120. IF YOU EXCLUDE NVGM, THE SPREAD IS ONLY 30-60NM IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. CONSEQUENTLY, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HIGH. TC 12S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 48 AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM MAY PEAK HIGHER AFTER TAU 48 PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, TC 12S WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR WITH DISSIPATION ANTICIPATED BY TAU 96. TC 12S IS FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY AS IT EMERGES OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL NEAR TAU 108. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND 180900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 162200).// NNNN