WTPS31 PGTW 170900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 170600Z --- NEAR 15.4S 146.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 146.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 15.9S 146.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 16.4S 145.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 16.8S 145.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 17.1S 144.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 170900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 146.5E. 17JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (KIMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 99 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT, MIDGET TC WITH A 60- 65NM DIAMETER CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. A 170425Z GMI 89GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE CAIRNS RADAR ALSO SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC LOCATED JUST WEST OF BOUGAINVILLE REEF, WHICH IS REPORTING 25-30 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS (10-MINUTE AVERAGE) WITH 30-35 KNOT GUSTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA, HOWEVER, DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND ABRF REMAIN LOWER AT T2.5 (35 KNOTS) WHILE THE 170630Z ADT ESTIMATE IS HIGHER AT 3.0 (45 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST VALUES (29-30C). TC 11P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 12 WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWESTWARD THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AND TWO DISCRETE GROUPS OF TRACKERS. UEMN, NVGM AND AEMN INDICATE A SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THAT HOLDS THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WHILE AVNO, EEMN, ECMF AND AFUM TRACK THE SYSTEM OVER LAND, SIMILAR TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK BASED ON THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC MOTION IN THE EARLY TAUS. TC 11P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 24 WITH RAPID WEAKENING OVER LAND AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY AS MIDGET CYCLONES CAN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY UNEXPECTEDLY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.// NNNN