ABIO10 PGTW 162130 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN CORRECTED/161800Z-171800ZJAN2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160751ZJAN2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.     
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 16JAN21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 16.6S 92.9E, APPROXIMATELY 1325 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO 
GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 160900) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 12.3S 67.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 65.2E, APPROXIMATELY 532 
NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 161438Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTIVE 
BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. INVEST 
99S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH 
ROBUST WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY STRONG (35-40KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK 
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADJUSTED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
NNNN