WTPS31 PGTW 170300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/162221JAN2021// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z --- NEAR 15.1S 146.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 146.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 15.5S 146.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 16.0S 146.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 16.5S 145.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 16.9S 144.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 17.3S 143.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 170300Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 146.4E. 17JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 113 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT TC 11P HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED INTO A MIDGET TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW HOURS, WITH A VERY SMALL CORE OF DEEP CYCLING CONVECTION, HOT TOWERS WITH OVERSHOOTING TOPS AND CLEARLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL BANDING OUTSIDE OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF THE OUTER EDGES OF A CIRCULATION SEEN IN ANIMATED RADAR DATA AND ANALYSIS OF A VERY FORTUITOUS 170004Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER BULLSEYE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, HEDGED HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS) BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT-B PASS WHICH SHOWED 40-45 KNOT WINDS IN A TIGHT CORE OF HIGH WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED VERY QUICKLY IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS, WARM (29-30 DEG C) SSTS AND DUE TO ITS POSITION UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, DUAL CHANNEL MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN IS VERY COMPLEX, WITH TWO LOBES OF A DEEP-LAYER STR, ONE TO THE NORTH AND ANOTHER TO THE SOUTH, ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST COMBINING TO CREATE A WEAK STEERING PATTERN, RESULTING IN A SLOW TRACK GENERALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTH. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS THE STEERING PATTERN WILL CHANGE SUBTLY WITH THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDING AND PUSHING WEST WITH A COL REGION DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA. IN RESPONSE TO THE OVERALL SHIFT IN THE STEERING PATTERN, TC 11P SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS, AND AFTER WEAKENING OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM WILL FALL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW PUSHING IT FURTHER INLAND TO THE WEST OF CAIRNS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, REACHING A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL NORTH OF CAIRNS JUST AFTER TAU 36. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION COUPLED WITH INCREASING VWS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNSURPRISINGLY IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT DUE TO VERY SMALL NATURE OF THE STORM STRUCTURE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PRESENTS A RANGE OF POTENTIAL SCENARIOS FROM A TRACK DUE SOUTH THEN CURVING NORTHWARD, TO A DUE WEST TRACK INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON ANALYSIS OF THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC TREND AND DOES NOT FAVOR ANY INDIVIDUAL MODEL TRACKER, THUS LENDING VERY LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. IN LIGHT OF THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN TRACK FORECAST, CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SUBSEQUENTLY VERY LOW AS WELL. HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THE MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS SUGGEST INTENSIFICATION THROUGH LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z. 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 162230).// NNNN