ABPW10 PGTW 162300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/162300Z-170600ZJAN2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 14.4S 146.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 146.4E, APPROXIMATELY 
133 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 162042Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS 
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED, SMALL LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY. A 161531Z AMSR2 WIND SPEED ESTIMATE REVEALS WINDS OF 28-
33 KNOTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC. INVEST 91P IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD SOUTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, WEAK (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LITTLE TO NO TROPICAL 
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, HISTORICALLY THE MODELS DO NOT HANDLE SYSTEMS 
OF THIS SIZE WELL, THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS MODEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY 
LOW.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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