WTXS31 PGTW 160900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 160600Z --- NEAR 16.6S 92.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 92.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 17.2S 91.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 17.8S 90.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 18.3S 88.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 18.6S 87.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 18.9S 84.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 19.8S 79.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 21.8S 74.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 160900Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 92.5E. 16JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1325 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 160515Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX ON MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 160233Z PARTIAL METOP-A ASCAT PASS. THE INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND APRF AND EXTENSIVE ZONES OF 30-35 KNOT WINDS WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT IN THE 160233Z ASCAT DATA. TC 10S IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. CONVECTION HAS FLARED OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER RECENTLY, SUPPORTED BY WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5- 10 KTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE (NEAR 27C). TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING PERSISTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD DIP A BIT POLEWARD IN THE NEAR- TERM AND ONCE AGAIN IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, AFTER TAU 96, AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ERODES AND REORIENTS IN RESPONSE TO TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNDER THE COMBINED INFLUENCES OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AFTER TAU 48, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER WILL LIKELY REVERSE THE INTENSIFICATION TREND. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST LIES EQUATORWARD OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON RECENTLY-OBSERVED WESTWARD MOTION AND NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST TRENDS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO. DESPITE A SMALL INCREASE IN MODEL SPREAD DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS HIGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z AND 170900Z.// NNNN