ABPW10 PGTW 160600 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/160600Z-170600ZJAN2021// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.5S 146.5E, APPROXIMATELY 154 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 91P IS IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29- 30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS VARY ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 91P WITH NAVGEM DEPICTING THE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING AND TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE AUSTRALIAN COAST. THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTS MODEST INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWARD BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL, WHILE GFS DOES NOT DEPICT INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN