SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001// WTXS31 PGTW 152100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/142151ZJAN2021// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 16.4S 94.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 94.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 17.1S 93.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 17.5S 91.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 18.1S 90.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 18.6S 89.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 19.3S 87.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 19.7S 82.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 21.5S 78.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 152100Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 93.8E. 15JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1590 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING, DEEP CONVECTION OBSURING A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INTIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, IN THE SOUTWEST CORNER OF A SEMI-ELONGATED CIRCULATION IN A 151459Z ASCAT-B PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN A PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0(30 KNOTS) DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ASCAT-B IMAGE WHICH DEPICTS A SWATH 30- 35 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION ON THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND IN AGREEMENT WITH A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 FROM APRF. ANAYLSIS DEPICTS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26-27C), AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 10S IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THE STR REORIENTS TO A MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTATION, TC 10S WILL BEGIN TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD AFTER TAU 72. AFTER TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST TOWRADS A WEAKNESS IN THE STR. TC 10S WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS AT TAU 48 DUE TO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 72, THE INTENSITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE DUE TO INCREASING VERRTICAL WIND SHEAR, DECREASING MID-LEVEL MOSITURE, AND CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 130 NM SPREAD AT TAU 120, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z AND 162100Z. 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERCEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 142200).// NNNN