WTXS21 PGTW 142200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S)REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/132151Z JAN 21//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.7S 96.1E TO 16.8S 92.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 141800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.2S 95.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1 
97.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 95.7E, APPROXIMATELY 146NM SOUTH 
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 141519Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE SHOW A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM 
WITH BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION. A 140707Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN 
AREA OF 30-35 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. INVEST 90S IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, MODERATE (20-25KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-30C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 
INVEST 90S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD, INTENSIFYING TO WARNING 
THRESHOLD WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 132200).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
152200Z.//
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