ABIO10 PGTW 141800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/141800Z-151800ZJAN2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.8S 97.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 73.9E, APPROXIMATELY 385 
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 141204Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOW SLOWLY 
CONSOLIDATING LLCC AND FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTOA 
WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. INVEST 99SIS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOODAGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99S WILL TRACK 
WESTWARD AND CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.8S 97.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 96.2E, APPROXIMATELY 116 
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 141519Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE SHOW A CONSOLIDATING 
SYSTEM WITH BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION. A 140707Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN 
AREA OF 30-35 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. INVEST 90S IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, MODERATE (20-25KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-30C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 
INVEST 90S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD, INTENSIFYING TO WARNING 
THRESHOLD WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 132200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE
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