ABIO10 PGTW 131800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/131800Z-141800ZJAN2021// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7S 78.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 77.4E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 131336Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL DISORGANIZED FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 131541Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED, ASYMMETRIC LLCC WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH. INVEST 99S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99S WILL TRACK WESTWARD AND CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 97.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 97.3E, APPROXIMATELY 31 NM NORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 131541Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVING CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A BROAD CENTER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE COCOS ISLANDS (YPCC) INDICATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 27KTS WITH SLP 1004MB (3MB 24HR PRESSURE DECREASE). A 131425Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS A TIGHT LLCC WITH 20-25 KNOT WRAPPING WINDS AND SMALL AREA OF 30-35 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. INVEST 90S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (20-25KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM. (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN