ABIO10 PGTW 131400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/131400Z-131800ZJAN2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 12.7S 81.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7S 78.9E, APPROXIMATELY 500 
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 131019Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL DISORGANIZED 
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 
INVEST 99S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND 
WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99S WILL TRACK WESTWARD AND CONSOLIDATE OVER 
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.8S 98.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 97.8E, APPROXIMATELY 59 
NM NORTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 131115Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A 
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVING CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE 
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A BROAD CENTER. SURFACE 
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE COCOS ISLANDS (YPCC) INDICATE SOUTHERLY WINDS 
AT 27KTS WITH SLP 1004MB (3MB 24HR PRESSURE DECREASE). INVEST 90S IS 
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, 
LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-30C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT 
THAT INVEST 90S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD 
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO 
MEDIUM.//
NNNN