ABIO10 PGTW 130930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/130930Z-131800ZJAN2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 12.3S 84.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7S 81.8E, APPROXIMATELY 627 
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 130100Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL 
DISORGANIZED FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER. INVEST 99S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99S WILL TRACK 
WESTWARD AND CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
11.8S 98.7E, APPROXIMATELY 111 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE COCOS 
ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 130730Z 
AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 130309Z ASCAT-
B IMAGE REVEALS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION OF MAINLY 15-20KT WINDS IN 
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES WITH A SMALL SWATH OF 25KT 
WINDS TO THE SOUTH. INVEST 90S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL CONTINUE 
TO CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2).//
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