ABIO10 PGTW 121800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/121800Z-131800ZJAN2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.0S 86.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 84.2E, APPROXIMATELY 752 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND A 121331Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS DISORGANIZED BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). INVEST 99S IS 
IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD 
WESTWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99S WILL TRACK WESTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE 
NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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