ABIO10 PGTW 101800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/101800Z-111800ZJAN2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 15.2S 99.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.7S 93.3E, APPROXIMATELY 
386 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 101212Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED 
AND DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. INVEST 98S IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW 
(<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S 
WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHWESTWARD AND WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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