ABIO10 PGTW 091800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/091800Z-101800ZJAN2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 13.9S 100.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 99.4E, APPROXIMATELY 
450 NM SOUTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 091522Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT FORMATIVE 
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 
INVEST 98S IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT 
WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND 
WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHWESTWARD AND WITH 
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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