WTXS31 PGTW 081500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 019// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 081200Z --- NEAR 18.0S 66.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 66.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 18.2S 65.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 18.6S 63.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 19.3S 61.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 20.0S 59.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 21.9S 56.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 23.1S 53.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 24.4S 51.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 081500Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 66.2E. 08JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 542 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT TC 08S HAS DEGRADED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS SINCE THE LAST FORECAST, WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BECOMING ELONGATED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST, AND NEARLY DEVOID OF CONVECTION. AT THE 1200Z HOUR CONVECTION HAS BEGUN FLARING ONCE MORE, BUT REMAINS LIMITED IN SCOPE AND AREAL COVERAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE VERY BROAD NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION, BUT IS SUPPORTED GENERALLY BY A PARTIAL 081210Z GMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWED SHALLOW BANDING WITH MODERATE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE ASSESSED CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AS 30 KNOTS, SUPPORTED BY MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES BETWEEN T2.0-T2.5 (30-35 KNOTS), AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T2.5. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT WHILE VWS IS LOW (5-10 KTS) AND SSTS ARE WARM (27-28 DEG C), THERE IS MINIMAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AS EVIDENCED BY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING NO DISTINCT OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THE LACK OF OUTFLOW HAS HINDERED SUSTAINED CORE CONVECTION, AND LED TO THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH 185NM SPREAD AT TAU 72 INCREASING TO 316NM AT TAU 120. HOWEVER, THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AS A WHOLE HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO A CHANGE IN THE STORM MOTION OF THE PREVIOUS 12-HOURS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FAVORS THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING BUT AVAILABLE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO STRONGER AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO. AS OUTFLOW SLOWLY IMPROVES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 40 KNOTS BY TAU 48. THEREAFTER, INCREASING VWS AND CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND AND DISSIPATION AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 120. THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO A GALE-FORCE SUBTROPICAL LOW SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR NEAR OR SLIGHTLY AFTER TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z AND 091500Z.// NNNN