WTXS31 PGTW 080300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 018// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 080000Z --- NEAR 17.1S 67.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 67.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 17.3S 65.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 17.6S 63.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 18.1S 61.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 18.9S 60.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 20.7S 57.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 22.1S 53.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 23.5S 50.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 080300Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 67.3E. 08JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 629 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TWO LARGE CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION FLARING AROUND A BROADLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 072035Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE AMSR2 WINDSPEED IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED CENTER WITH 5-7 KNOTS AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 38 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT (10-MINUTE AVERAGE). THIS, ALONG WITH RECENT ASCAT DATA, SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS, WHICH IS HEDGED ABOVE PGTW/FMEE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5(35 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIR OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST VALUES (27-28C). ALTHOUGH POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH, TC 08S CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING AND CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP- LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 205NM AT TAU 72 INCREASING TO 405NM BY TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST IS HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH HAS OUTPERFORMED THE INDIVIDUAL MODEL TRACKERS THUS FAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS REMAINED CHALLENGING AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR MADAGASCAR BY TAU 120 AS SST COOLS TO 26C. HOWEVER, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO A GALE-FORCE SUBTROPICAL LOW SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z AND 090300Z.// NNNN