WTXS31 PGTW 071500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 017// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 071200Z --- NEAR 16.3S 70.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 70.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 16.4S 67.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 16.5S 65.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 17.1S 63.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 17.6S 61.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 19.4S 58.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 21.6S 55.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 23.0S 51.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 071500Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 69.7E. 07JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 775 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS WEAK CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 071151Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED THE WEAK AND DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, WHICH IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST SECTORS OF THE LLCC. WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL BANDS EVIDENT IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND IS HEDGED BELOW AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T2.8. ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS AND WARM (27-28C) SSTS BEING OFFSET BY WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 08S IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORHTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 36. BY TAU 48, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE EAST, ALLOWING TC 08S TO BEGIN TRACKING MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS MAURITIUS. A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT, COMBINED WITH LOW VWS, SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TO 40 KTS. NEAR TAU 36, OUTFLOW SHOULD IMPROVE ONCE MORE, BRIEFLY TAPPING INTO A POLEWARD CHANNEL, WHICH, COMBINED WITH CONTINUED LOW VWS, WILL RESULT IN A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 48. INCREASING VWS, ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR, AND DECREASED OUTFLOW WILL COMBINE BY TAU 72 TO BEGIN WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 96 THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO VERY LOW OHC WATERS AND CONVERGENT OUTFLOW FORMS ALOFT, BEGINNING A RAPID WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH 85NM SPREAD AT TAU 72, INCREASING TO 160NM AT TAU 120, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z AND 081500Z.// NNNN